No end to Iranian suffering

The only thing worse than harsh rule of clerics is the US-Israel meddling

Alok Tiwari

The images and news from Iran these days could not be more unsettling. As internal protests triggered by economic hardships have spread in several cities, there are reports of harsh reprisals by the security forces. Thanks to lack of access by independent media and a government ordered internet shutdown, genuine information is hard to come by. Still, there is no denying there have been large number of casualties. Different sources estimate the toll from a few hundred to a few thousand. For a time, it appeared that the protests may finally topple the 46-year rule by ayatollahs. However, in recent days the government appears to have gathered its wits. Not only it has cracked down hard on protesters, but it has also managed to get thousands of its own supporters out on the streets to counter the protesters.

Whichever way it goes, Iran appears headed for a messy future and a continuing tragedy for one of the oldest civilizations on earth. The people’s quest for a decent life seems never-ending. A popular uprising overthrew the American backed Shah-regime in 1979 and installed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as its supreme leader. It turned out to be proverbial jump from frying pan into the fire. The new government, far from bringing in an era of freedom and prosperity, ran the country by harsh Islamic edicts. Not only did it deny liberty internally, but it also exported trouble abroad by way of setting up and financing militias everywhere in the middle east to rival the Saudis and needle Israel.

The regime has encountered and seen off intermittent protests several times in the decades that it has been in power. Last time it was in 2023 over death a young woman Mahsa Amini who was arrested and tortured to death by the country’s moral police for not wearing hijab in public place. Those protests too were brutally suppressed and resulted in hundreds of deaths. The protests this time, borne out of economic collapse resulting from the fall of Iranian riyal, are more widespread. The crackdown also seems more brutal. It is also very different this time.

The government has characterised the protests as being fanned by foreign elements, specifically Israel and US. On the face of it, it looks like standard trope of a government facing internal dissent—blame it on foreign hand. While foreign elements would no doubt love to take advantage of any disturbance, they can do nothing if there is no internal unrest. When you have a population that is suffering for a long time, anything can trigger a mass upsurge. We have seen it happen in country after country.

Yet, the involvement of Israel’s Mossad is also more than apparent. Not the least because the agency itself has been proclaiming it from the rooftops. It has been sending out social media messages in Persian encouraging the protesters and assuring them of help in the field. So are conservative Israeli and US politicians. There is no doubting the presence and influence of Mossad in Iran. The way it has carried out assassinations of not just security figures but also nuclear scientists inside Iran points to its capabilities.

US president Donald Trump has also been openly warning of armed intervention. There is reason to take him seriously after his brazen abduction of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Of course, Iran is not Venezuela, and middle east is not Latin America. A similar operation here against Iranian leadership is all but ruled out. Venezuela is virtually next door to US where vast resources can quickly be summoned if things go wrong. It is not the same in neighbourhood of Iran. But US may try to intervene in other ways. Trump’s instinctive antipathy towards Iran and success of his operation in Venezuela may spur him to take more risks here.

There are good reasons why he and Israel should hold their horses. The very act of openly intervening may destroy whatever little chance the uprising against Ayatollahs may have of succeeding. The regime is already painting the protests as foreign inspired. The Americans and Israelis are doing everything to prove the Iranian government propaganda right. This will help the regime paint the protesters as foreign agents out to destabilize the country and evoke nationalist and religious sentiments. The way Israel and US are egging on the protesters is not helping the latter’s cause.

There may be popular anger against the regime, but nationalist and religious sentiments still run strong among common people. Even people suffering under autocratic rulers are reluctant to let outsiders meddle in their affairs, lest they be dubbed anti-nationals. Generations in Iran have been conditioned to see America as the Great Satan and an ally of Jewish Israel. It will be easy for the government propagandists to discredit the movement both as anti-Iran and anti-Islam if it is seen as being aided and abetted by these two powers.

Commonsense would dictate that a more hands off approach this time might be more effective. But when has Trump allowed commonsense to affect anything he does? Of course, there may be more forces and more interests at work in Iran than is apparent. Like Venezuela, Iran has oil. That fact alone guarantees meddling by international forces. If on the one hand, US, Israel and the West would like to see the Islamist regime fall, on the other nations like Russia, China, or even North Korea may be wanting to prop it up.

Tragically, this may mean that the people of Iran may continue to be squeezed between a rock and a hard place. They have endured the oppressive rule of clerics for decades. The present protests, if they fail to topple the regime, will only result in that rule getting harsher. If by some miracle they succeed, a western backed puppet regime will only take them back to the days of the Shah.

This column appeared in Lokmat Times on Jan 15, 2025