America’s Trump card

Within weeks, the new US President has set America on a long road to decline

Alok Tiwari

There is little doubt the world has fundamentally changed since the inauguration of President Donald Trump in USA. There have been many examples of popular movements swiftly overthrowing dictators—sometimes bloodlessly, often accompanied with bloodshed. There have been very few when a functional democracy descended into a functional autocracy so quickly sans a military coup or suspension of legal process by a wannabe dictator. Usually, this process is long drawn as a populist demagogue steadily chips away at individual rights and adds to state power. Who could have thought this would happen in a country that used to see itself as a leader of the free world? But exactly this has happened in the US in a matter of weeks.

Trump, in his second coming, looks less of a head of state known for its checks and balances and more of an autocrat in a tinpot republic. His power over the government seems absolute, aided by a compliant supreme court and a descent into absolute sycophancy by Republican party. Domestically, he has inducted a bunch of shady characters into the cabinet, halted decades of progress in diversity and inclusion programmes, and allowed billionaire Elon Musk to trample all over the government.

This is also spilling onto international affairs where Trump continues to run amok. In just over a month, he has upended virtually everything that the US once stood for. The televised fracas with Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy at the oval office last week just capped his bull in the china shop approach to international affairs. Just before the blow off, we saw Trump starting talks with Russians to end war in Ukraine while keeping Ukraine out. US also voted with Russia on a resolution on the war. Shortly after Zelenskyy visit, he has moved to stop all US aid to Ukraine that might imperil the country’s very existence an independent nation. All this while threatening and imposing tariffs on imports from closest allies, a move that could signal the end of rule-based global free trade that has helped world economy grow.

The rest of the world is understandably taken aback. Initial reactions have been of many countries buckling under the pressure. Mexico and Canada moved to appease Trump to avoid immediate imposition of tariffs. Even India lowered duties on American motorcycles and whiskies. European nations, while mouthing support to Ukraine, are scrambling to put together a peace plan that might win Trump approval. Ukraine appeared ready to offer substantial access to US to its vast mineral wealth in lieu of security guarantees.

This is because of the overarching importance of US in global affairs. What America does has immediate and significant consequences. Given the size of its economy, its huge market for goods from all over the world, the power of dollar, presence of huge diasporas of many nationalities and ethnicities, US is enmeshed in international affairs like few other countries. Hence, most nations try not to rub it the wrong way. The apparent capitulation of world leaders is a result of this realization and a lack of immediate fall-back plans. This seems to have only encouraged Trump to double down on his policies, if they can be called so.

However, the tactic is unlikely to work in the long term. Whether internally or externally, there is a reason why governments tend to work in a slow or deliberate manner. Policies and diplomacy have long term results that need to be thought through. Experts mull over actions and possible reactions. Final decisions consider these and many other inputs. Even then, there are unintended consequences. The whimsical, ham-handed, and arbitrary approach of Trump may yield some short-term concessions but over time it will only serve to diminish the global influence of the US.

The truth is that nobody likes to be bullied. So even though countries may defer to Trump’s tantrums now, they will look for ways to grow out of US influence. Many countries, including China are already trying to make their industries independent of US markets. There are trade agreements in offing virtually all over the globe that seek to bypass the US. This will have consequences for dollar as world’s reserve currency. Its influence has already declined. Trump’s ways will only accelerate that process. The tit-for-tat imposition of tariffs on US goods will also hurt US economy and further weaken American standing in the world.

Europeans now realize they can no longer count US as a stable and reliable ally, economically or strategically. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had shaken them out of their complacency and exposed how thin their defences were. The unreliability of US security shield should spur them on to do more for their own security. France has already moved to extend its nuclear defences to Germany. The smaller European nations, particularly those bordering Russia, now know Americans will not come to their aid. But the singular defiance of Russian forces by Ukraine also tells them that with a little help it is possible to resist even a mighty army. They will seek to integrate more with larger countries in Europe.

All this will mean the already waning US influence will decline more quickly. It is churlish to imagine the US, or any other nation, ever pursued anything but its own self-interest. That said, in the post-War decades, US efforts were underpinned by a desire to spread politically and economically free societies. This was far from perfect, and it did support worst sort of dictators along the way, but overall thrust was to push for democracy and free trade. Trump has made it clear he could not care less for both, domestically and internationally. It may look like a victory for his MAGA (Make America Great Again) crowd for now, but in a few years he will have made America diminish in ways it seldom has been.

This column appeared in Lokmat Times on Mar 5, 2025