Behind the smokescreen

Poll considerations, not empowerment, prompted delimitation and women’s bills

Alok Tiwari

Last week the opposition won a rare victory in parliament when it blocked the government’s bills to undertake a fresh delimitation exercise for the Lok Sabha and state assemblies and provide a 33% reservation for women in expanded houses. Had the move passed, it would have taken the Lok Sabha strength to 850 from the present 543. It would have also increased the strength of all state assemblies from the present just over 4,000 to over 6,000.

The opposition had no problems with reserving one third of the seats for women. It saw red in linking the move with expanding the Lok Sabha and carrying out new delimitation process. That would have upset all political calculations. Southern states have long been against delimitation fearing losing political clout even more owing to relatively slower rate of population growth that they have achieved over the decades. They argued they have done better in controlling their numbers and thereby are also doing better economically. Already they contribute more to national tax kitty than they receive on a per capita basis. This equation would only have got worse for them.

The government sought to allay those fears by promising (though it was not explicit in the provisions of the bills) that the present proportion of seats in parliament will still be maintained. However, politicians know proportion is only one part of the story. The numbers matter as much. Kerala for instance has 20 Lok Sabha seats while Uttar Pradesh has 80, with a difference in number of 60. Under the proposed dispensation, Kerala would have 30 Lok Sabha seats while UP will have 120, increasing the difference to 90.

A party sweeping northern states would have overwhelming advantage in Lok Sabha than one more successful in southern ones. No prizes for guessing which party does better in northern states. For the BJP, north has been a far happier hunting place than the south. Its politics of polarisation works much better there while it has often run into stony ground in the south. Kerala and Tamil Nadu have been toughest nuts for it to crack. The opposition asked the government to implement women’s reservation in existing strength of house. BJP did not oblige. No matter which way the constituencies are reserved, it would have meant putting a lot of its own political heavyweights on the bench.

Modi government thus saw one of its most significant legislative pushes defeated in the parliament. This is extremely rare for a government more concerned with optics than any in history. BJP under Modi is also an astute political machine. There is no way it would have thought it could pull off the victory. It just did not have the numbers to pass the constitutional amendment bills that require a two thirds majority in the house. So why would a politically keen government undertake an exercise to suffer a visible defeat, that too in the middle of an election campaign.

The answer lies in how the party is using the defeat. While the opposition is crying delimitation, BJP is crying women. It knows delimitation and its aftermath are too complex a concept for most people to follow. Blaming opposition for denying reservation to women is an easier message to get across. It also knows that if women voters could be swayed even by small percentage, it yields big results. The electoral success of Ladki Bahin type schemes is proof of that. But with every party latching on to it, it was providing diminishing returns,

With this move, BJP is seeking to create a sense of grievance towards the opposition parties nationally. If it works, it will pay large dividends in poll bound states. If the bills had passed it would have claimed credit for giving political representation to women. It is using failure to project itself as a champion of women thwarted by the opposition.

It is as if the party was ready with its campaign. Almost on cue, prime minister Narendra Modi went on air to deliver what was essentially an election speech. Its leaders took up the message everywhere, particularly in West Bengal where the party is once again locked in a bitter struggle with a woman chief minister. Despite everything, Mamata Banerjee enjoys a big following among Bengal women. It has fielded a relatively larger number of women. It also sends a big group of very vocal and eloquent women to parliament. That is why the BJP’s propaganda machinery amplifies every crime against women in Bengal like a national calamity while quietly ignoring similar ones elsewhere.

It is also important to note what the new discourse about women’s representation has displaced in the national news cycle. The government did not bring the controversial bills during the budget session, which it could easily have. It did not wait until after the current round of elections were over, which also it could easily have. Instead, it called a special session of parliament just to discuss these bills. Besides the worry about losing women’s votes, it also needed to deflect attention from something that was emerging as big issue in Bengal, the absolute havoc that Election Commission is wreaking through its Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls.

It is becoming clear that it is less an exercise in cleaning up the rolls and more in modifying them to suit the ruling party. As sections of media are beginning to report, an extremely large number of electors have been kept out on extremely flimsy grounds. A disproportionally large number of them are Muslims, a demographic that is firmly against the BJP. While the pattern in the manner voters are being excluded is becoming clear, the next scrutiny would be of the way new voters are being added. BJP wanted this off headlines. Hence the smokescreen of reservation for women. It is cynical but effective. Full marks to the BJP for that.

This column appeared in Lokmat Times on Apr 23, 2026